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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to BUF 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP