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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to MIN 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model