Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(3:04) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to TB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-B.Reedy.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model