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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model