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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +3.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP