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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to MIN 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP