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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 24 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 17 for 3 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.81 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model