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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP