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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(:05) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model