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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.88 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model