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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP