Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(10:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to KC 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 15 for 1 yard (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.53 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model