Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(11:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 25 for 3 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model