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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 12-A.Wilson right end to KC 35 for -4 yards (40-C.McCain).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP