Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model