Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.64 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP

KICK -0.80 EP

39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
61% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model