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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model