4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model