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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to GB 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 40 for 33 yards (42-C.Fejedelem, 56-H.Nickerson).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model