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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 4-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP