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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP