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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 30

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model