Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

(7:50) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to GB 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Davis to GB 23 for 8 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.99 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model