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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for no gain (24-B.Countess).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP