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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 22

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on LA-90-M.Brockers, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model