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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds to WAS 17 for 28 yards (80-J.Crowder).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model