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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 76

Washington Commanders 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to LA 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 42 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on LA-43-J.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.53 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model