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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 33

Washington Commanders 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model