Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 63

Washington Commanders 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

(12:13) 5-T.Way punts 62 yards to LA 1, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 7 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model