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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 74

Washington Commanders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LA 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-T.Austin to LA 32 for 12 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model