4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(:53) 7-B.Walsh 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model