Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(5:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to SF 28, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 39 for 11 yards (41-D.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model