Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(1:33) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for no gain (38-A.Colbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.10 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model