Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 89

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(4:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.06 EP
55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model