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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 40

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-S.Griffin.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model