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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(:22) 9-R.Gould 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.91 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model