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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to SF 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 32 for 8 yards (30-B.McDougald).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model