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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model