Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(4:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to SF 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.32 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP

KICK -1.33 EP

26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model