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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to SEA 3, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-30-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.51 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP