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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model