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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model