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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to PHI 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model