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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to KC 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model