Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PHI 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 20 for 10 yards (41-J.Winchester). FUMBLES (41-J.Winchester), RECOVERED by KC-42-A.Sherman at PHI 24. 42-A.Sherman to PHI 24 for no gain (95-M.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model