Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(5:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model