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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 42 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(:29) 2-G.Tavecchio 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model