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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 60

New York Jets 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 28

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to LV 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 30-J.Richard to LV 21 for 13 yards (95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model