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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 28

New York Jets 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 7-C.Catanzaro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.90 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP