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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 9-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model